Validation of the Grace Risk Score to Predict In-Hospital and 6-Month Post-Discharge Mortality in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background The wide range of clinical presentations of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) makes it indispensible to use tools for risk stratification and for appropriate risks management; thus, the use of prognosis scores is recommended in the immediat clinical decision-making. Objective To validate the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score as a predictor of in-hospital and 6-month post-discharge mortality in a population diagnosed with ACS. Methods This is a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients diagnosed with ACS between May and December 2018. GRACE scores were calculated, as well as their predictive value for in-hospital and 6-month post-discharge mortality. The validity of the model was assessed by two techniques: discriminative power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and goodness-of-fit, using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, at the 5% level of significance. Results A total of 160 patients were included, mean age 64 (±10.9) years; of which 60% were men. The risk model showed to have satisfactory ability to predict both in-hospital mortality, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.95; p = 0.014), and 6-month post-discharge mortality, with AUC of 0.78 (95%CI, 0.62-0.94), p = 0.002. The HL test indicated good-fit for both models of the GRACE score. Conclusion In this study, the GRACE risk score for predicting mortality was appropriately validated in patients with ACS, with good discriminative power and goodness-of-fit. The results suggest that the GRACE score is appropriate for clinical use in our setting.

Significados dos episódios maníacos para pacientes com transtorno bipolar em remissão: um estudo qualitativo / Meanings of manic episodes in patients with bipolar disorder in remission: a qualitative study

Objetivo Discutir os significados da vivência de episódios maníacos para pacientes com transtorno bipolar (TAB). Métodos Trata-se de uma pesquisa qualitativa, feita por meio de entrevistas semidirigidas em profundidade, em uma amostra fechada pelo critério de saturação com oito pacientes com TAB em remissão. A técnica de tratamento de dados foi feita por meio da análise de conteúdo das entrevistas transcritas na íntegra e categorização. Os resultados foram submetidos à validação externa, no Laboratório de Pesquisa Clínico-Qualitativa do Departamento de Psicologia Médica e Psiquiatria da Unicamp, composto por 37 pesquisadores do método, entre eles mestrandos, doutorandos, pós-doutorados e pesquisadores seniores. Resultados Foram identificadas três categorias – Ambivalência e vergonha: pensar ou não pensar sobre os episódios maníacos; Organizando sentimentos pessoais: a remissão como um momento de autoconsciência; Episódios maníacos estruturando relações interpessoais versus projeções da angústia. Conclusão Os achados da presente pesquisa contribuem para a maior compreensão dos quadros maníacos no TAB, que podem auxiliar nas reflexões acerca da relação profissional-paciente, para elaborar estratégias para aderência e para as medidas terapêuticas e preventivas da recorrência dos episódios. Podem auxiliar a equipe de saúde envolvida no acompanhamento desses casos e também os pesquisadores na investigação da contribuição dos significados aqui discutidos nos fenômenos de aderência ao tratamento e de um melhor prognóstico. .

Objective To discuss the meanings of the experiences of manic episodes in patients with bipolar disorder (BD). Methods This is a qualitative research, done through semi-structured in-depth interviews in a sample closed by saturation criterion with eight patients with BD in remission. The technical data processing was done through qualitative content analysis of the transcribed interviews and categorization. The results were validated by peer-reviewers from the Laboratory of Clinical-Qualitative Research of the Department of Medical Psychology and Psychiatry, Unicamp consisting of 37 researchers of the method, including, masters, doctoral, postdoctoral and senior researchers. Results Three categories were identified – Ambivalence and shame: to think or not to think about the manic episodes; Organizing personal feelings: remission as a moment of self-consciousness; Maniac episodes: structuring interpersonal relationships versus projections of self-criticism. Conclusion The findings of this research contribute to a greater understanding of manic frames in BD that can assist in the reflections on the doctor-patient relationship, to develop strategies for adherence and the therapeutic and preventive measures of recurrent. Can assist the health team involved in monitoring these cases and also the researchers in investigation of the contribution of these meanings discussed here in the phenomena of adherence to treatment and a better prognosis. .